Nothing is more tantalizing than a prediction. Even though it may never come true (we know that most certainly never do) it’s always nice to either have known something in advance and taken the proper action or at least be confident in your ability to make the right choices ahead of the curve.
Enter 2012. Despite the fact that China invading India (or at least one of its western neighbors) may just be a biased prediction, its plausibility becomes more and more evident when you compare it to history.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Russia was forced to crackdown on the Islamic Chechen minorities in some of their southern provinces, which appeared nearly autonomous. After facing heavy international pressure and accusations of brutality, they held back.
In 2004, Islamic Chechen rebels stormed a school in Beslan in the North Ossetia province of Russia, killing over 1,100 people, 777 which were children. The government cracked down again and consolidated power in their central government, and were once again roundly criticized.
In 2008, under multiple guises, Russia stormed into the sovereign nation of Georgia, blasting through the capital and establishing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as de facto Russian states. Our ally Georgia was left bloodied, its sovereignty stampeded, and, in the midst of a hard-fought presidential election, the US turned the other way.
Fast forward to 2012.
In the mid-to-late 2000s, China was forced to crackdown on the Islamic Uighur minorities in some of their western provinces, which appeared nearly autonomous. After facing heavy international pressure and accusations of brutality, they held back.
All that it takes is for the Islamic Uighur minority to carry out some form of terrorism against China in the western region. China will crack down some more and be criticized. Western sovereignty and autonomy will become an issue. If China is forced to lose some land in the west, it will possibly want to gain land to make up for it with a bulging population.
If China sees too many Western or American allies lined up on their western border, it is only a matter of time before they crack and decide to demonstrate a spectacular show of force. Make no mistake, China has been weakened by the economic crisis, but so has their neighbors. With Pakistan on the brink of collapse, its ability to threaten India being stymied by US/Coalition efforts in the Afghanistan/Pakistan border region, Pakistan becomes of lesser importance and can no longer be in position to distract India’s military strength. With Islamic militants in the Kashmir region ready to attack either India or China, China could take bold action, under the guise of national security.
And then the question remains: What would the US do?
The more that China strengthens Pakistan and weakens India the more that they undermine US influence in the region. China still holds claims over parts of NE Kashmir, and instead of remaining a patient observer over the skirmishes in that region there’s always the possibility that they could become more active.
China’a alliance with Russia is cemented each and every day, and with both countries working together, the United States’s influence on the world stage could be diminished, especially in Central and South-Central Asia.
Remember: the Sino-Indian War was only a few decades ago. If the situation with Pakistan deteriorates, there could be massive consequences. In light of our inaction in Iran and misappropriated action in Honduras, it is a scenario for which we must prepare.